Dealing with Uncertainty

First edition

Copyright © 2016 Imperial Tech Foresight
Copyright © 2016 Richard Watson

Tech Foresight, the TF logomark and the Imperial College London logo are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of Imperial College London.

All other trademarks, service marks, trade names, trade dress, product names and logos are the property of their respective owners. Use of these does not in any way imply endorsement or approval.

http://www.imperial.ac.uk/techforesight


Data sources

C01UN Population Fund. (2014) Urbanization. http://goo.gl/RF0cnB [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C04Jaffe E. (03/08/2015) Uber and public transit are trying to get along. CityLab from The Atlantic. http://goo.gl/C4mzp5 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Kokalitcheva K. (30/12/2015) Uber completes 1 billion rides. Fortune. http://goo.gl/6ewpHl [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C05Agence France-Presse. (19/10/2015) Oslo moves to ban cars from city centre within four years. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/XKOxxR [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Sivak M., Schoetlle B. (2016) Recent decreases in the proportion of persons with a driver's license across all age groups. University of Michigan. http://goo.gl/E8o7Yq [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C06Newcomb A. (2015) From 'Glassholes' to privacy issues: the troubled run of the first edition of Google Glass. ABC News. http://goo.gl/K0oIZp [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Walker D. (24/01/2013) Kit Kat creates WiFi-free zone to force city dwellers to relax. PSFK. http://goo.gl/BLNWBZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C07McLellan C. (04/03/2016) How hackers attacked Ukraine's power grid: Implications for Industrial IoT security. ZDNet. http://goo.gl/Koofzw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Vallance C. (2016) Ukraine cyber-attacks “could happen to UK”. BBC News. http://goo.gl/7U3DbN [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C08Balcombe J. (2015) Flooding economic impact will breach £. KPMG. https://goo.gl/Daj4fg [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
World Resources Institute. (2015) Aqueduct global flood analyzer. http://goo.gl/W4gUOw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C093D Hubs. (27/07/2016) . https://goo.gl/QVA6my [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Robinson R. (01/06/2012) Will the city of the future be a hyperlocal manufacturing cluster?. The Urban Technologist. https://goo.gl/AwJpmj [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C10Global Agenda Council on the Future of Cities. (2015) Top ten urban innovations. World Economic Forum. http://goo.gl/Qg9079 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Hanahaus. (2016) . http://goo.gl/HInIrX [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C11Dasgupta A. (24/11/2015) COP 21: An opportunity to put cities squarely on the climate agenda. World Resources Institute. http://goo.gl/xSPBDo [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Maddison A. (2004) The world economy: a millennial perspective. OECD Development Centre. http://goo.gl/nna8cE [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C12Garrett B. (04/08/2015) The privatisation of cities' public spaces is escalating. It is time to take a stand. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/RvjjV2 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Vasagar J. (11/06/2012) Public spaces in Britain's cities fall into private hands. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/soC1lS [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C13De Clercq G. (08/12/2015) France's Engie: a utility invests in cutting power demand. Reuters. http://goo.gl/pEHJ1V [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Schaps K., Twidale S. (23/05/2016) The power cutters shaking up Britain's energy market. Reuters. http://goo.gl/sVXh9V [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C14International Federation of Robotics. (2015) Industrial robot statistics. http://goo.gl/qOpIOe [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
PSFK Labs. (21/01/2016) Will robots rule in the cities of the future?. http://goo.gl/ve8de6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C15Fyhri A., Fearnley N. (2015) Effects of e-bikes on bicycle use and mode share. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 36: 45-52 http://goo.gl/EegPXR [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Wikipedia. (2016) Shanghai maglev train. https://goo.gl/cbBUky [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C17Mims C. (2016) Are shipping containers the future of farming?. The Wall Street Journal. http://goo.gl/J04SCf [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Weller C. (23/10/2015) The future of agriculture is an indoor vertical farm half the size of a Wal-Mart. http://goo.gl/qWWyQ6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C18Atlantic Council. (2014) Megacity slums and urban insecurity. http://goo.gl/2Zs3qA [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Liotta P. H. (2006) Human security and cities in the Greater Near East. In. Human security for an urban century: local challenges, global perspectives. http://goo.gl/BTdVwX [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
C19Dignan J. (30/10/2013) CityNext: Microsoft's future city market proposition. Ovum Ltd. http://goo.gl/xPK3qz [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
World Economic Forum, PwC. (2015) Inspiring future cities and urban services: shaping the future of urban development and services initiative. https://goo.gl/gfCaH4 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N01Microsoft IoT. (27/10/2015) ThyssenKrupp teams up with Microsoft to transform the future of the 150-year-old elevator industry. Microsoft.com. https://goo.gl/CnpEZN [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
van der Meulen R. (10/11/2015) Gartner says 6.4 billion connected “things” will be in use in 2016, up 30 percent from 2015. Gartner. http://goo.gl/WwDe9X [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N02Cisco. (01/02/2016) Cisco global cloud index: forecast and methodology, 2014-2019. http://goo.gl/5HExNi [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N04Swanson A. (01/03/2016) The eerie math that could predict terrorist attacks. The Washington Post. https://goo.gl/wQ6Kdd [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Wang A. X. (29/09/2015) Hitachi says it can predict crimes before they happen. Quartz. http://goo.gl/dUPn3c [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N05Gibbs S. (02/07/2016) Facebook apologises for psychological experiments on users. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/1s16PZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Statista. (2015) Annual number of data breaches and exposed records in the United States from 2005 to 2015 (in millions). http://goo.gl/BBX1lH [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N07Follett J. (27/06/2016) Why emerging technologies are the next great frontier for UX. UX Matters. http://goo.gl/G5Wdvw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Labarre S. (04/01/2016) The most important design jobs of the future. Fast Company & Inc. http://goo.gl/H06H0h [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N08Lanier J. (2013) Who own the future?. Penguin. http://goo.gl/VM5e9 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Lomas N. (25/01/2016) People.io is another shot at rewarding people for sharing personal data. TechCrunch. https://goo.gl/NMjSTe [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N09Griffith E. (13/08/2014) In a bitter fight for customers, Uber and Lyft begin to self-destruct. Fortune. http://goo.gl/oV0J0N [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Mahdawi A. (15/03/2016) Are you ready for a future where we're all reviewed like Uber drivers?. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/Ekwjfn [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N11Slater M. S. (2013) Short-termism at its worst: how short-termism invites corruption… and what to do about it. Edmond J. Safra Working Papers. No. 5 http://goo.gl/r9KOA3 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N12Lyman R. (06/08/2015) Czech company, pressing hits for years on vinyl, finds it has become one. The New York Times. http://goo.gl/fqD0Mz [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N13Macchi M., Berthon B., Robinson M. (2016) Digital density index. Accenture Strategy. https://goo.gl/nwqH8F [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
The Boston Consulting Group. (01/04/2015) UK eGDP 2010-2018: summary of forecasts. https://goo.gl/AhbQvU [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N14Condliffe J. (04/02/2016) NSA plans to 'act now' to ensure quantum computers can't break encryption. Gizmodo. http://goo.gl/FJwbxy [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N15Accenture Strategy. (04/12/2014) Digital supply network: the new standard for modern supply chain management. https://goo.gl/uYkOTw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Deloitte. (2016) 2016 MHI Annual Industry Report – Accelerating change: How innovation is driving digital, always-on supply chains. https://goo.gl/ScQBoz [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N16Leetaru K. (04/01/2016) In machines we trust: algorithms are getting too complex to understand. Forbes. http://goo.gl/WcrxAG [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Lomuscio A. (2015) Can you ever really trust an autonomous machine?. Imperial Tech Foresight. http://goo.gl/kxMrps [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N17Pandey A. (17/05/2016) Artificial intelligence replicates nobel prize-winning physics experiment in less than an hour. International Business Times. http://goo.gl/mauCVb [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N18MemSQL. (22/12/2015) Predictions 2016: the impact of real-time data. http://goo.gl/pQNQTw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
N19Niederkorn M., Bruno P., Hou G., Istace F., Bansal S. (01/10/2015) Global payments 2015: a healthy industry confronts disruption. McKinsey & Company. http://goo.gl/3bcSpZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Visa Europe. (18/12/2015) Why 2015 was the year for payments. http://goo.gl/Baoia4 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R01Munson D. (20/04/2016) Thinking beyond microgrids to build a smarter energy future. Environmental Defense Fund. http://goo.gl/hxKUOZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Munson D. (2016) Thinking beyond microgrids to build a smarter energy future. Environmental Defense Fund. http://goo.gl/hxKUOZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R02Abraham D. S. (23/10/2015) The war over the periodic table. https://goo.gl/QRC1aQ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R03Fawcett T. (28/03/2014) Radical vision of personal carbon allowances could be the answer to greenhouse gas glut. http://goo.gl/TEs7Qs [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R04Woody T. (18/09/2013) Google is on the way to quietly becoming an electric utility. http://goo.gl/ddkJ8a [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R06Haddaway A. (09/11/2015) The recycling revolution: water recycling trends, technologies in CA amid ongoing drought. WaterWorld. 31(11) 10 http://goo.gl/dg6RL6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R07Foremski T. (16/11/2012) Chris Anderson: “3D printing will be bigger than the web”. Silicon Valley Watcher. http://goo.gl/JYBbA [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Wohlers Associates. (2014) Wohlers Report 2014. https://goo.gl/R85sjb [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R09BBC News. (25/01/2016) Oil price fall blamed for sharp rise in UK firms folding. http://goo.gl/CdBao6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R10Trading Economics. (2016) Crude oil. http://goo.gl/kRxQRU [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R12Wheeler T., von Braun J. (02/08/2013) Climate change impacts on global food security. Science. 341(6145) 508-513 http://goo.gl/QFrw8E [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
World Food Programme. (2016) Hunger. https://goo.gl/39mWqe [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R15Neil D. (23/12/2015) Private car ownership is on the road to becoming a rarity. Wall Street Journal. http://goo.gl/jFMHPZ [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
PWC. (2014) The sharing economy – sizing the revenue opportunity. http://goo.gl/qF7Sw9 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R16Ryan, M. (2016) What if a material could last forever?. Imperial Tech Foresight. http://goo.gl/XfcIta [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R17Ellis, T. (2015) Reconstructing biology to create designer cells. World Economic Forum. https://goo.gl/ScQBoz [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R18Resource Association. (20/08/2015) Putting quality recycling at the heart of a circular economy. CIWM Journal Online. http://goo.gl/LMIdqg [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R19Ellen Macarthur Foundation. (2016) Using product passports to improve the recovery and reuse of shipping steel. https://goo.gl/krdRj1 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
The Dictionary of Sustainable Management. (2016) Cradle-to-cradle. http://goo.gl/UJq4YC [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R20Eldridge J. (27/05/2014) Successfully navigating the inevitable transition of nanomaterials from speciality materials into commodities. Nanotechnology Now. http://goo.gl/Y2nCVP [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Lee L. (05/11/2015) Gazing into the void: what you can do with Vantablack, the darkest material ever made. The New York Times. http://goo.gl/aPq4Tw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
R21Aguinis H., Gottfredson R. K., Joo H. (2012) Using performance management to win the talent war. Business Horizons. 55: 609-616 http://goo.gl/DlicPc [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
United Nations Population Division. (2015) World Population Prospects 2015. https://goo.gl/uJfmrl [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W01Andre C., Velasquez M. (13/11/2015) Genetic screening in the workplace. Markkula Center for Applied Ethics. https://goo.gl/m7dfQd [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W02Department for Work and Pensions. (2015) Employment statistics for workers aged 50 and over, by 5-year age bands and gender. HM Government. https://goo.gl/bkK8Kv [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
European Agency for Safety and Health at Work. (2016) Why is ageing of the workforce relevant for HR management?. http://goo.gl/YHkNGi [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W03Chui M., Manyika J., Miremadi M. (01/11/2015) Four fundamentals of workplace automation. McKinsey & Company. http://goo.gl/a4VOH6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
McKinsey Global Institute. (2013) Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy. http://goo.gl/p0EuC6 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W04Frey C. B., Osborne M.A. (17/09/2013) The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?. Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology. http://goo.gl/kQCyd8 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Hearn, G. N. (2014) The creative fulcrum : Where, how and why the creative workforce is growing. In Andersen L., Ashton P., & Colley L. (Eds.) Creative business in Australia: learnings from the Creative Industries Innovation Centre, 2009 to 2015. 93-106 http://goo.gl/lkAaOz [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W05Huang J., Kisgen D. J. (2013) Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?. Journal of Financial Economics. 108(3) 822-839 http://goo.gl/ZlbYLV [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
KRC Research, Weber Shandwick. (2015) The female CEO: reputation premium?. http://goo.gl/lyybmO [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W06Fecheyr-Lippens B., Schaninger B., Tanner K. (01/03/2015) Power to the new people analytics. McKinsey & Company. http://goo.gl/Tdl9Hg [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W07Haagen H. (2014) How aviation safety has improved. Allianz. http://goo.gl/0va6Q1 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Mingle K. (23/06/2015) Children of the magenta. (Automation paradox, pt. 1). 99% Invisible. http://goo.gl/MByuqw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W08Corporate Watch. (2006) What's wrong with corporate social responsibility? The arguments against CSR. https://goo.gl/qUK9cj [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Edwards P. (15/11/2012) Offsetting evil with good. Hall & Partners. http://goo.gl/abMU7L [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W09Gapper J. (05/08/2015) New ‘gig’ economy spells end to lifetime careers. https://goo.gl/F8raxD [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Groth A. (12/06/2016) Americans need to stop treating full-time employment like marriage. Quartz. http://goo.gl/d9aJS3 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W11Roth D., Latoschik M. E., Vogeley K., Bente G. (2015) Hybrid avatar-agent technology – a conceptual step towards mediated “social” virtual reality and its respective challenges. i-com. 14(2) https://goo.gl/l0iAQo [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Russell B. (22/05/2016) I hope this augmented reality future never happens. TechnoBuffalo. http://goo.gl/yM84rx [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W12Chang L. (20/06/2015) Not your grandpa’s office: Americans are telecommuting and using their smartphones more in their jobs. Digital Trends. http://goo.gl/rkW8Dw [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Konrath S. H., O'Brien E. H., Hsing C. (05/08/2010) Changes in dispositional empathy in American college students over time: a meta-analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Review. 15(2) 180-198 http://goo.gl/QMl7xF [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W13LaFrance A. (31/03/2016) Technology, the faux equalizer. The Atlantic. http://goo.gl/4JfNhi [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W14DeVol R., Badroussian A. , Charuworn A., Chatterjee A, Kim I. K., Kim S., Klowden K. (01/10/2007) An unhealthy America: the economic burden of chronic disease – charting a new course to save lives and increase productivity and economic growth. Milken Institute. http://goo.gl/ULKqMH [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Wang Y. C., McPherson K., Marsh T., Gortmaker S. L., Brown M. (27/08/2011) Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK. The Lancet. 378(9793) 815-825 http://goo.gl/HGE9lM [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W15Bostrom N. (31/01/2008) Three ways to advance science. Nature. http://goo.gl/TA9oGK [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Smith IV J. (14/04/2015) Nootropic brain drugs rise in popularity for today’s cutthroat corporate climbers. Observer.com. http://goo.gl/iLFZdd [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W16Wakefield J. (12/03/2015) BBC gives children mini-computers in Make it Digital scheme. BBC News. http://goo.gl/hQOJD2 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
W17Smith D., LaVelle K., Lyons M., Silverstone Y. (2016) The gig experience: unleashing the potential of your talent and your business. Accenture Strategy. https://goo.gl/hR0Cy4 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
X01Bank of England. (2016) Statistical interactive database - interest and exchange rates data. http://goo.gl/hKCEJe [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Trading Economics. (2016) United Kingdom interest rate. http://goo.gl/TIUMt [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
X02Johnson S. (18/02/2016) Rising tide of protectionism imperils global trade. Financial Times. http://goo.gl/LdMxK1 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
X03Billings M. (01/06/1997) The influenza pandemic of 1918. Stanford University. https://goo.gl/aZTEZT [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Kelland K. (08/02/2016) The World Health Organization’s critical challenge: healing itself. Reuters. http://goo.gl/k0jX14 [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
X04McGuire B. (28/03/2015) Are we ready for the next volcanic catastrophe?. The Guardian. https://goo.gl/5ig2Da [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Wikipedia. (2016) Year without a summer. https://goo.gl/eFcKx [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
X05Lewis K. (2013) Platforms for antibiotic discovery. Nature Reviews Drug Discovery. 12: 371-387 http://goo.gl/33EKsD [Accessed: 01/07/2016]
Review on Antimicrobial Resistance. (2014) Antimicrobial resistance: tackling a crisis for the health and wealth of nations. https://goo.gl/98bQbO [Accessed: 01/07/2016]

Image Credits

All images used under license from Shutterstock.com unless otherwise stated.

C06duhsomebodee (2014) https://goo.gl/Y5gLnk
C09John Abella (2013) https://goo.gl/DLsjtR
N08People.io (2016) https://goo.gl/8rmb7G
R07Alan Levine (2012) https://goo.gl/sOayVS
R20Vantablack (2015) https://goo.gl/igWBQP
W03DoNotPay (2016) http://goo.gl/DnR3vw
W13Salvador Rodriguez (2015) http://goo.gl/UzXaSf
W15Nootrobox (2016) https://goo.gl/dVbmqo
W16Jodipedia (2016) https://goo.gl/MVoJ9H