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Webinar: Modelling UncertaintySep072016
Event: 07 September 2016 13:00 BST

Webinar: Modelling Uncertainty
Tackling ambiguity with Extreme Bounds Analysis

We are very excited to be able to invite you to join Dr Katharina Hauck, Senior Lecturer in Health Economics, for a one hour webinar and Q&A, on September 07. Katharina will show how new economic models - which harness the explosion in computer power - can help organisations make better decisions by focussing on factors that genuinely influence outcomes.

This webinar kicks off a new "Decision Making Under Uncertainty" webinar series hosted by Imperial Business Partners in collaboration with Imperial Tech Foresight.

Synopsis

The expected outcomes of strategic decisions are often affected by many factors, and the associated uncertainties interact in ways that are so unpredictable that a plausible range of future scenarios cannot be determined. Extreme Bounds Analysis is a method of model averaging. It reduces the multitude of factors to a subset that shows most robust association with the future outcome of interest, based on past data. It then estimates how plausible variation in these factors affects future outcomes, and helps the strategic decision-maker to work out a distinct number of future scenarios. This webinar will give a lay introduction to Extreme Bounds Analysis. It uses as an example a study that advised policy makers at the World Health Organization on the best investments in population health in low-income countries.

 

Dr Katharina Hauck

 

Katharina is Senior Lecturer in Health Economics at the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London. Katharina's research focuses on empirical health economics, the quantitative evaluation of health policy, and the economics of infectious diseases.

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Imperial Business Partners




Credits

Imperial Business Partners (IBP) is a network of academics, policy makers, business strategists and industrialists exploring the implications and applications of the cutting edge scientific discoveries being made at Imperial College London. We aim to create a catalytic forum for discussion by bringing different disciplines and areas of expertise into close contact at a range of events. By being a member of the programme you not only help Imperial use its research to solve real world problems but you gain a competitive advantage within your industry by remaining at the forefront of technological advancement.

Imperial Tech Foresight (ITF) offers challenging, provocative and personal visions of the future from Imperial College London's world-leading academic talent, through its foresighting services. It looks ahead to what the next decades could offer as a consequence of the breakthrough discoveries Imperial College London sees across its labs today.